Thursday, July 14, 2011

What is the real unemployment rate?

There are two "real" unemployment rates. The one we hear all the time is the percentage collecting UI and is around 9% only because the extra time during the past few years adds to the number of people on UI. Otherwise it would be about 8% or so. This is called the U3 rate, and is pretty accurate since it counts noses (people collecting UI). The U6 rate includes all those who want a job but don't have one and that includes UI beneficiaries. It is not 20-25%, the best estimates are about 16% (and that trends with the average of 2X the UI rate). So no bunch of crock, just two sets of numbers, and the U6 rate is much harder to calculate.

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